METHODOLOGY
Understand the plan before the projection.
READ THE ASSUMPTIONS
Accurate arithmetic. Uncertain outcomes.
How the calculation works
Each row represents one full year at the displayed age. From next year, the stock price changes by your growth assumption. A selected retirement shock applies before that year's withdrawal—even if retirement starts now.
Spending and other income grow with inflation from today. The portfolio funds the difference after estimated tax. Sales stop at the shares available; unmet spending is reported as a shortfall. Growth after retirement continues on the remaining shares.
What this does and does not model
Included: Tesla holdings, recurring retirement income, spending, inflation, simplified sale taxes and the selected downside path. No contributions, dividends, fees, cash reserves, diversification, income start-date changes or tax-loss benefits are included.
There is no success probability: these paths have no assigned likelihood. One stock can lose all its value. A plan working under a scenario does not make it safe or predict what will happen.
Your data and comparisons
Calculations run in your browser. Save stores scenario settings on this device until you remove them or clear browser data. Saved scenarios from earlier calendar years are not loaded into the new horizon. Legacy analyst-based scenarios are not converted.
Price data comes from the site's published price sheet and may be delayed. You can enter a price yourself. Every comparison uses the displayed price; saved plans retain their original price.
Educational scenario planning, not financial, investment or tax advice. This site is not affiliated with Tesla. Check assumptions with a qualified adviser before relying on a retirement plan.
Read the results
The first spending shortfall is the first year Tesla sales plus other income cannot cover the after-tax spending you entered. Future income is not borrowed to fill an earlier shortfall.
“How much could I spend?” searches for the largest constant spending amount in today’s dollars supported by the selected growth and stress path, including other income. It preserves your minimum ending balance in today’s dollars, after the last withdrawal and before any final liquidation tax, with no additional safety margin. If the target is unreachable even without Tesla withdrawals, no spending amount satisfies the selected path.
“What return would my plan require?” searches constant annual growth from −99% to 100%, without an added shock, while preserving the minimum ending balance. This threshold and its implied ending stock price illustrate what the plan demands; they are not predictions.
The five growth examples are −3%, 0%, 5%, 10%, and 20% per year. The 20% bullish case is an illustrative upside assumption, not a forecast. Change any assumption. The downside tests apply before retirement withdrawals: a 50% drop then resumed growth; five flat retirement years then resumed growth; or a 70% drop followed by a permanently flat price.
In the gains-only tax estimate, taxable gain per share is the current share price minus the average purchase cost, floored at zero. The selected rate applies to that gain. No loss credit is assumed. In the full-sale method, the effective rate applies to the entire sale. Other income is entered after tax.
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